ESF’s submission emphasizes the need for a more practical, balanced approach to achieving Canada’s climate objectives; one that protects competitiveness, strengthens energy security, and contributes to global emissions reductions.
A realistic path forward
Canada’s 2030 ERP remains an aspirational plan, but its current design risks driving investment out of the country and undermining the energy systems that Canadians depend on.
As noted in ESF’s submission, the ERP requires a 44% reduction in oil and gas sector operating emissions within the next 50 months, a pace of transformation that no major energy-producing country has achieved with available technologies.
At the same time, the federal carbon price is set to reach $170 per tonne by 2030, the second highest in the world, while competing jurisdictions often lack equivalent pricing or use revenues to offset industrial costs. Without adjustment, these measures could reduce production rather than emissions, leaving Canadians with higher costs and fewer opportunities while increasing global reliance on higher-emitting energy sources.
Canada’s role in global energy security
The submission highlights Canada’s strategic role in supporting global energy security through the export of lower emission liquefied natural gas (LNG). Supplying reliable energy to countries across the Indo-Pacific, particularly Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, nations that import between 80% and 96% of their energy, can help lower global emissions by displacing coal and providing dependable fuel for growing economies.
“Policies should be designed to maximize Canada’s contribution to global emissions reductions, rather than focusing narrowly on domestic accounting,” the submission notes.
Globally, over $500 billion in LNG projects have reached final investment decisions, yet Canada represents less than 10% of that total, despite being the world’s fifth-largest natural gas producer. ESF argues that aligning federal policies with Canada’s comparative advantages could incentivise investment, create jobs, and help allies secure the energy they need.
A balanced approach to meet Canada’s potential
ESF calls for technology-neutral, evidence-based policy that enables innovation and supports investment in lower-emission energy production. By focusing on practical measures that strengthen competitiveness and reduce emissions both at home and abroad, Canada can meet its climate objectives while contributing meaningfully to global energy stability.
